Population forecasts following the war-related refugee influx from Ukraine in three growth scenarios
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has now been underway for a whole year, and with it the flow of refugees continues. The United Nations Refugee Agency estimates that over 5.7 million people have already left the Ukraine to seek refuge abroad, the majority of them heading west towards Poland and Germany. According to the Federal Statistical Office (2023), around 1.1 million people have fled to Germany since the beginning of the war (Destatis 2023). The highest immigration rates were recorded shortly after the start of the war in March, April and May, with up to 375,000 people arriving each month. The net immigration significantly exceeds that of past refugee movements to Germany, which in turn is accompanied by additional demand for newly built housing. Due to these migratory dynamics and their effects on the German housing market, our data partner empirica regio GmbH has used a new variant “Ukraine” to forecast the population and households, the demand for new buildings and the development of the housing vacancy rate until 2035. From the modified baseline situation, three development scenarios (low, medium, high) were calculated once again. Based on this and on demographic development and other immigration, empirica regio expects an increase in the population of between 147,000 and 311,000 persons by the end of 2023.
Where can I find the new forecasts?
The forecasts for population and household development are embedded in the three familiar scenarios in the structural data table of IZ Research Cities in the “Demographics and Households” tab. In the housing market table, you will find the Ukraine variants in three scenarios up to 2035 in the “New construction demand” and “Vacancy” tabs.
